Human well-being is threatened by the disruption of earth systems and by destabilization and material inequality within and among societies. The objective of my research program is to evaluate approaches to achieving sustainable development. This section describes a set of empirical studies analyzing alternative scenarios that could counter these pressures. The conceptual articles formulate the modeling framework used in these analyses.
See Publications page for a complete list.
World Trade as the Adjustment Mechanism of Agriculture to Climate Change
The first empirical study to utilize the World Trade Model (WTM), this paper investigates the extent to which global shifts in comparative advantage could facilitate the adjustment of agriculture to climatic changes.
Julia, R. and F. Duchin, 2007. Climatic Change, 82:393-409.
Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change
This follow-up study takes account also of projected increases in population and associated demand for food in all regions of the global economy.
Julia, R. and F. Duchin, 2013. Sustainability, 5(12): 5442-5459.
Regional Development in China: Interregional Transportation Infrastructure and Regional Comparative Advantage
Examines the comparative advantages that could emerge for the Western and Central regions of China following investment in transportation infrastructure.
He, L. and F. Duchin, 2009. Economic Systems Research, 21(1).
Shifting Trade Patterns as a Means to Reduce Global CO2 Emissions: Implications for the Aluminum Industry
Estimates the trade-offs between minimizing global costs vs. global carbon emissions for the aluminum industry in particular.
Strømman A., E. Hertwich, and F. Duchin, 2009. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 13(1): 38-57.
Publisher link. Author’s version.
Policies and Technologies for a Sustainable Use of Water in Mexico: A Scenario Analysis
The first of three studies to examine the impacts of policies imposing region-specific fees or quantity limits on water withdrawals for agriculture in Mexico.
López-Morales, C. and F. Duchin, 2011. Economic Systems Research, 23(4): 387-407.
Do Water-Rich Regions have a Comparative Advantage in Food Production? Improving the Representation of Water for Agriculture in Economic Models
Examines whether the water-rich regions of Mexico would have a comparative advantage for food production if constraints were placed on water withdrawals in water-scarce regions.
Duchin, F. and C. López-Morales, 2012. Economic Systems Research, 24(4):371-389.
Economic Implications of Policy Restrictions on Water Withdrawals from Surface and Underground Sources
Revisits the policy implications of restrictions on water withdrawals when surface water and groundwater sources are explicitly distinguished.
López-Morales, C. and F. Duchin, 2015. Economic Systems Research, 27(2): 154-171.
Feeding Nine Billion People Sustainably: Conserving Land and Water through Shifting Diets and Changes in Technologies
Examines prospects for changes in diets and in technologies to make it possible to satisfy
global demand for food sustainably by mid-century and the accompanying shifts in the
geographic distribution of food production and the prices of foods.
Springer, N. and F. Duchin, 2014. Environmental Science & Technology, 48(8): 4444–4451.
The Global Economic Costs of the Need to Treat Polluted Water
Extension of the World Trade Model framework with a systematic approach for distinguishing water quality and treatment options for subsequent reuse of wastewater streams.
Cazcarro, I., C. López-Morales, and F. Duchin, 2016. Economic Systems Research, 28(3): 295-314.
Prospects for Cellulosic Biofuel Potential in the Northeastern United States: A Scenario Analysis
Examination for a particular geography of the substitution of imported liquid fuels by local production of biofuels from net forest growth and woody wastes.
Dilekli, N. and F. Duchin, 2016. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 20(1): 120-132.